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The Signal And The Noise


Author : Nate Silver
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2012-09-27


PDF Download The Signal And The Noise Books For free written by Nate Silver and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-09-27 with Political Science categories.


One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read. From the Trade Paperback edition.

Summary And Analysis Of The Signal And The Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don T


Author : Worth Books
language : en
Publisher: Open Road Media
Release Date : 2017-01-10


PDF Download Summary And Analysis Of The Signal And The Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don T Books For free written by Worth Books and has been published by Open Road Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-10 with Study Aids categories.


So much to read, so little time? This brief overview of The Signal and the Noise tells you what you need to know—before or after you read Nate Silver’s book. Crafted and edited with care, Worth Books set the standard for quality and give you the tools you need to be a well-informed reader. This short summary and analysis of The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver includes: Historical context Chapter-by-chapter summaries Important quotes Fascinating trivia Glossary of terms Supporting material to enhance your understanding of the original work About The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver: Drawing on groundbreaking research, The Signal and the Noise, written by the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight.com, examines how data has been used in prediction and forecasting, and how to find the true signals—the points that indicate that something will happen—amidst noisy and distracting data. Addressing different fields of forecasting and predictions—from politics to earthquakes to poker—Silver explores the reasons why some things are easier to forecast, like the weather, while others are so difficult, such as terrorism. From one of the country’s smartest thinkers. The Signal and the Noise provides vital insights into how to think about probability and predictions on the economy, climate change, sports, and other subjects that impact our lives. The summary and analysis in this ebook are intended to complement your reading experience and bring you closer to a great work of nonfiction.

Flow Das Geheimnis Des Gl Cks


Author : Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi
language : de
Publisher: Klett-Cotta
Release Date : 2017-06-15


PDF Download Flow Das Geheimnis Des Gl Cks Books For free written by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi and has been published by Klett-Cotta this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-06-15 with Psychology categories.


Glück kommt nicht von außen, Glück ist das, was wir aus unseren Erfahrungen machen. Dieses Buch zeigt, dass Menschen dadurch, dass sie ihr eigenes Erleben kontrollieren, die Kontrolle über ihre Lebensqualität selbst in die eigene Hand nehmen. Auf diese Weise kommen sie dem Glück immer näher. »Csikszentmihalyi beweist, was Philosophen schon seit Jahrhunderten sagen: Der Weg zum Glücklichsein liegt nicht in hohler Vergnügungssucht, sondern in sinnvoller Herausforderung.« The New York Times Wer das Glück will, muss das Chaos im eigenen Kopf beherrschen. Wer frei sein will, muss nur seine Ziele kennen. Das Buch fasst jahrzehntelange Forschung über die positiven Aspekte menschlicher Erfahrungen zusammen: Freude, Kreativität und den Prozess vollständigen Einsseins mit dem Leben, den der Autor FLOW nennt. Glück ist nichts, was man mit Geld kaufen könnte. Glück ist flow. Jeder hat dieses Gefühl schon erlebt: über sich selbst zu verfügen, im Einklang mit sich und der Welt zu sein und sein Schicksal in die eigene Hand nehmen zu können. Bei diesen seltenen Gelegenheiten spürt man ein Gefühl von Hochstimmung, von tiefer Freude, das lange anhält und zu einem Maßstab dafür wird, wie das Leben aussehen sollte. »FLOW« ist ein Buch der praktischen Lebensweisheit. Zwar gibt es keinen Königsweg zum flow, auch erfordert die Einzigartigkeit jedes Menschen einen individuellen Zugang; aber wer versteht, was flow ist, dem wird es möglich, das eigene Leben zu verändern. Diese Veränderungen hängen nicht so sehr von äußeren Ereignissen ab, sondern eher davon, wie wir sie deuten. - Glück ist ein Zustand, für den man bereit sein muss, den jeder einzelne kultivieren und für sich verteidigen muss. Menschen, die lernen, ihre innere Erfahrung zu kontrollieren, können ihre Lebensqualität bestimmen; und das kommt dem, was wir gewöhnlich Glück nennen, wohl am allernächsten. »"Flow. Das Geheimnis des Glücks" zeigt, dass Glück nicht vom Himmel fällt. Die Fähigkeit zum Glücklichsein und FLOW zu empfinden, steckt in jedem. Mit Konzentration auf das, was man tut, kann man den Zustand des FLOW erreichen. Ein tolles Buch, das Lust auf Leistung macht.« Wolfgang Joop Flow bezeichnet einen Zustand des Glücksgefühls, in den Menschen geraten, wenn sie gänzlich in einer Beschäftigung »aufgehen«. Entgegen ersten Erwartungen erreichen wir diesen Zustand nahezu euphorischer Stimmung meistens nicht beim Nichtstun oder im Urlaub, sondern wenn wir uns intensiv der Arbeit oder einer schwierigen Aufgabe widmen. Laut The Independent gehört Mihaly Csikszentmihalys »Flow. Das Geheimnis des Glücks« zu den 33 Büchern, die man gelesen haben muss, bevor man 30 wird.

Der Schwarze Schwan


Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
language : de
Publisher: Albrecht Knaus Verlag
Release Date : 2015-11-02


PDF Download Der Schwarze Schwan Books For free written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and has been published by Albrecht Knaus Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-02 with Social Science categories.


Eines der einflussreichsten Bücher der letzten Jahrzehnte Schwarze Schwäne stehen symbolisch für das, womit wir nicht rechnen. Wenn uns im Alltag ungeahnte Überraschungen begegnen, ist das vielleicht noch nicht so schlimm. Suchen sie jedoch gesamte Volkswirtschaften heim, kann das System kollabieren, wie etwa die Finanzkrise des letzten Jahrzehnts gezeigt hat. Denn unsere Welt ist fragiler, als wir denken: Schon kleinste Fehler können eine Katastrophe auslösen und sie ins Chaos stürzen. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, einer der vielleicht klügsten, kritischsten und innovativsten Denker inner- und außerhalb der Finanzwelt, zeigt in seiner luziden und bahnbrechenden Schrift, dass wir jederzeit mit »Schwarzen Schwänen« rechnen sollten. Gnadenlos und trennscharf arbeitet er die Schwachstellen unseres Systems heraus und lässt uns nicht zuletzt Prognosen gegenüber skeptisch sein.

The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes


Author :
language : en
Publisher: Callisto Media Inc
Release Date : 2012-11-20


PDF Download The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes Books For free written by and has been published by Callisto Media Inc this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-11-20 with Business & Economics categories.


The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

Analysis Of Nate Silver S The Signal And The Noise By Milkyway Media


Author : Milkyway Media
language : en
Publisher: Milkyway Media
Release Date : 2018-03-30


PDF Download Analysis Of Nate Silver S The Signal And The Noise By Milkyway Media Books For free written by Milkyway Media and has been published by Milkyway Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-30 with Study Aids categories.




The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes The Expert Guide To Nate Silver S Critically Acclaimed Book The 30 Minute Expert Series


Author : The 30 Minute Expert Series
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013-03-29


PDF Download The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes The Expert Guide To Nate Silver S Critically Acclaimed Book The 30 Minute Expert Series Books For free written by The 30 Minute Expert Series and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-29 with Business & Economics categories.


For a complete understanding of Nate Silver's Signal and the Noise, we strongly encourage you to purchase the original book titled The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't by Penguin Publishing Big data has arrived! Whether you're using that data to make a billion-dollar decision to merge two companies or to choose a team to win the World Series, how do you distinguish the signal (the truth) from the noise (our all-too-human impulse to make choices based on personal bias)? In his groundbreaking work The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver brings the complexities of statistics down to earth by using real-life examples of how we all make predictions and why those predictions are often wrong. The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is your expert guide to Nate Silver's main thesis that our decision making is filtered through our personal assumptions and beliefs as opposed to the truth of the data at hand. This concise companion details: * Nate Silver's journey from forecasting Major League Baseball players' performance to predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections * Both praise for and critical reactions to his ideas from such noted sources as the New York Review of Books and the Wall Street Journal * Key concepts, including analyzing prediction failures, practicing Bayesian thinking, and expanding self-awareness * Key terms, such as Bayes's theorem, with easy-to-understand definitions and examples * Recommended readings and a bibliography listing additional resources analyzing Silver's work and the phenomenon of big data The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is a timely guide to a topic that affects all our lives. From choosing stocks, to predicting wars, to making personal changes in light of climate change, The Signal and the Noise challenges both nations and individuals to make smarter choices. About the 30 Minute Expert Series Offering a concise exploration of a book's ideas, history, application, and critical reception, the 30 Minute Expert Series is designed for busy individuals interested in acquiring an in-depth understanding of seminal works. More than just a summary, the 30 Minute Expert Series offers detailed analysis, critical presentation of key ideas and their application, extensive reading lists for additional information, and a contextual understanding of the work of leading authors. Designed as a companion to the original work, the 30 Minute Expert Series enables readers to develop expert knowledge of an important work ... in 30 minutes.