free web tracker

The Signal And The Noise


Author : Nate Silver
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2012-09-27


PDF Download The Signal And The Noise Books For free written by Nate Silver and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-09-27 with Political Science categories.


One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.


Author : Nassim Taleb
language : iw
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009


PDF Download Books For free written by Nassim Taleb and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Forecasting categories.




The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes


Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012-11-01


PDF Download The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes Books For free written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-11-01 with Bayesian statistical decision theory categories.


The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes


Author :
language : en
Publisher: Callisto Media Inc
Release Date : 2012-11-20


PDF Download The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes Books For free written by and has been published by Callisto Media Inc this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-11-20 with Business & Economics categories.


The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

Summary Of Nate Silver S The Signal And The Noise By Milkyway Media


Author : Milkyway Media
language : en
Publisher: Milkyway Media
Release Date : 2018-08-31


PDF Download Summary Of Nate Silver S The Signal And The Noise By Milkyway Media Books For free written by Milkyway Media and has been published by Milkyway Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-08-31 with Study Aids categories.


The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t (2012), considers the common shortcomings statisticians face when attempting to make predictions. While bad predictions can lead to setbacks and false beliefs, accurate predictions can advance scientific knowledge, government efficiency, the quality of education, and other social projects and goals… Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.


Author : יעל מולצ׳אדסקי
language : iw
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015


PDF Download Books For free written by יעל מולצ׳אדסקי and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.




Keeping The Republic Power And Citizenship In American Politics 6th Edition The Essentials


Author : Christine Barbour
language : en
Publisher: CQ Press
Release Date : 2013-01-15


PDF Download Keeping The Republic Power And Citizenship In American Politics 6th Edition The Essentials Books For free written by Christine Barbour and has been published by CQ Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-15 with Political Science categories.


Effectively using the themes of power and citizenship, Christine Barbour and Gerald C. Wright explain how and why institutions and rules determine who wins and who loses in American politics. Whether you get your news from a popular blog or a traditional media outlet, this book models critical thinking and provides the tools you need to be a savvy consumer of political information. And with your purchase of this Media Edition, you get FREE access to an enhanced eBook, which includes links to audio, video, data, articles, historical background, profiles, and CQ Researcher policy reports that bring depth and interactivity to the book Keeping the Republic is filled with phenomenal resources that help students fully engage in the text. It is well written and extremely substantive. Students rave about the graphics, pictures, and other visuals that help guide them as they understand the material. The transitions from topic to topic are smooth and clear, and the real-world applications are also extremely well done. A terrific textbook for intro students, and a great foundation for budding political scientists."---Alison Dagnes, Shippensburg university "Keeping the Republic presents the information in a balanced and visually appealing style that gets, and keeps, students reading and engaged with the content. The graphics and `Don't Be Fooled By...' features are well above the competition. The online instructor resources are excellent." ---Gary A. Johnson, Weber State University "The political science faculty at our Virginia state university have utilized Keeping the Republic for many years. Barbour and Wright offer current and helpful pedagogical features that encourage class discussion and reinforce the students' understanding of critical information. The text's organization offers a useful means of breaking down the semester-length course, and my students genuinely like the layout of the text."---Peter M. Carlson, Christopher Newport University "Keeping the Republic simplifies complicated concepts without losing the key points. Students find the book easy to read and well organized for study. The book is especially well suited for the non-political science major and works well for large-sized sections or for online courses. The `Thinking Outside the Box' questions, along with the helpful test bank, encourage discussion in class or in online forums."---Donald S. Inbody, Texas State University "Keeping the Republic holds the attention of my students better than books I have used in the past. I like to include as much pop culture as I can in the teaching of my class, and this book is the best one I have found that makes an effort to do the same."---Norman Rodriguez, John Wood Community College "What's at stake? This book repeats that question over and over. It defines a perspective that makes Keeping the Republic meaningful to all students of American government. Citizenship is a skill, and this text approaches government from the point of view of the citizen. It asks the reader to be critical, not in the sense that government is necessarily the problem, but rather in asking how government structure and operations can be improved to enhance the lives of the citizens of the United States, of which the reader is one. And, importantly, the book requires the reader to confront the question of what role and responsibility do I, the citizen, have. By default, the approach pulls the student in and makes the student a partner in the book and its conclusions."---John P. McIver, University of Texas, Austin "I continue to assign Keeping the Republic because the authors do a great job of keeping students engaged. There are many features that make this text more interesting to students---like the `Profiles in Citizenship' in each chapter that explain how individual Americans take an active part in politics. These profiles provide interesting personal narratives about why citizenship and participation matter while also reinforcing chapter material." ---Jason D. Mycoff, University of Delaware