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Die Berechnung Der Zukunft


Author : Nate Silver
language : de
Publisher: Heyne Verlag
Release Date : 2013-09-02


PDF Download Die Berechnung Der Zukunft Books For free written by Nate Silver and has been published by Heyne Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-09-02 with Business & Economics categories.


Zuverlässige Vorhersagen sind doch möglich! Nate Silver ist der heimliche Gewinner der amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2012: ein begnadeter Statistiker, als »Prognose-Popstar« und »Wundernerd« weltberühmt geworden. Er hat die Wahlergebnisse aller 50 amerikanischen Bundesstaaten absolut exakt vorausgesagt – doch damit nicht genug: Jetzt zeigt Nate Silver, wie seine Prognosen in Zukunft Terroranschläge, Umweltkatastrophen und Finanzkrisen verhindern sollen. Gelingt ihm die Abschaffung des Zufalls? Warum werden Wettervorhersagen immer besser, während die Terrorattacken vom 11.09.2001 niemand kommen sah? Warum erkennen Ökonomen eine globale Finanzkrise nicht einmal dann, wenn diese bereits begonnen hat? Das Problem ist nicht der Mangel an Informationen, sondern dass wir die verfügbaren Daten nicht richtig deuten. Zuverlässige Prognosen aber würden uns helfen, Zufälle und Ungewissheiten abzuwehren und unser Schicksal selbst zu bestimmen. Nate Silver zeigt, dass und wie das geht. Erstmals wendet er seine Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung nicht nur auf Wahlprognosen an, sondern auf die großen Probleme unserer Zeit: die Finanzmärkte, Ratingagenturen, Epidemien, Erdbeben, den Klimawandel, den Terrorismus. In all diesen Fällen gibt es zahlreiche Prognosen von Experten, die er überprüft – und erklärt, warum sie meist falsch sind. Gleichzeitig schildert er, wie es gelingen kann, im Rauschen der Daten die wesentlichen Informationen herauszufiltern. Ein unterhaltsamer und spannender Augenöffner!

Die Berechnung Der Zukunft


Author : Nate Silver
language : de
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013


PDF Download Die Berechnung Der Zukunft Books For free written by Nate Silver and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.




The Signal And The Noise


Author : Nate Silver
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2012-09-27


PDF Download The Signal And The Noise Books For free written by Nate Silver and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-09-27 with Political Science categories.


One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Summary And Analysis Of The Signal And The Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don T


Author : Worth Books
language : en
Publisher: Open Road Media
Release Date : 2017-01-10


PDF Download Summary And Analysis Of The Signal And The Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don T Books For free written by Worth Books and has been published by Open Road Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-10 with Study Aids categories.


So much to read, so little time? This brief overview of The Signal and the Noise tells you what you need to know—before or after you read Nate Silver’s book. Crafted and edited with care, Worth Books set the standard for quality and give you the tools you need to be a well-informed reader. This short summary and analysis of The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver includes: Historical context Chapter-by-chapter summaries Important quotes Fascinating trivia Glossary of terms Supporting material to enhance your understanding of the original work About The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver: Drawing on groundbreaking research, The Signal and the Noise, written by the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight.com, examines how data has been used in prediction and forecasting, and how to find the true signals—the points that indicate that something will happen—amidst noisy and distracting data. Addressing different fields of forecasting and predictions—from politics to earthquakes to poker—Silver explores the reasons why some things are easier to forecast, like the weather, while others are so difficult, such as terrorism. From one of the country’s smartest thinkers. The Signal and the Noise provides vital insights into how to think about probability and predictions on the economy, climate change, sports, and other subjects that impact our lives. The summary and analysis in this ebook are intended to complement your reading experience and bring you closer to a great work of nonfiction.

Wirtschaftsprognose


Author : Kurt W. Rothschild
language : de
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
Release Date : 2013-03-08


PDF Download Wirtschaftsprognose Books For free written by Kurt W. Rothschild and has been published by Springer-Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.




Usa


Author : Hartmut Wasser
language : de
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
Release Date : 2013-11-21


PDF Download Usa Books For free written by Hartmut Wasser and has been published by Springer-Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-21 with Science categories.




Die Seele Einer Neuen Maschine


Author : Tracy Kidder
language : de
Publisher:
Release Date : 1989


PDF Download Die Seele Einer Neuen Maschine Books For free written by Tracy Kidder and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989 with Computer engineering categories.