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The Signal And The Noise


Author : Nate Silver
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2015


PDF Download The Signal And The Noise Books For free written by Nate Silver and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with Business & Economics categories.


The founder of FiveThirtyEight.com challenges myths about predictions in subjects ranging from the financial market and weather to sports and politics, profiling the world of prediction to explain how readers can distinguish true signals from hype, in a report that also reveals the sources and societal costs of wrongful predictions.

The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes


Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012-11-01


PDF Download The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes Books For free written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-11-01 with Bayesian statistical decision theory categories.


The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes


Author :
language : en
Publisher: Callisto Media Inc
Release Date : 2012-11-20


PDF Download The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes Books For free written by and has been published by Callisto Media Inc this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-11-20 with Business & Economics categories.


The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

The Theory That Would Not Die


Author : Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
language : en
Publisher: Yale University Press
Release Date : 2011


PDF Download The Theory That Would Not Die Books For free written by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne and has been published by Yale University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Mathematics categories.


Bayes rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.

Chance Rules


Author : Brian Everitt
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2009-06-29


PDF Download Chance Rules Books For free written by Brian Everitt and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-06-29 with Mathematics categories.


Chance continues to govern our lives in the 21st Century. From the genes we inherit and the environment into which we are born, to the lottery ticket we buy at the local store, much of life is a gamble. In business, education, travel, health, and marriage, we take chances in the hope of obtaining something better. Chance colors our lives with uncertainty, and so it is important to examine it and try to understand about how it operates in a number of different circumstances. Such understanding becomes simpler if we take some time to learn a little about probability, since probability is the natural language of uncertainty. This second edition of Chance Rules again recounts the story of chance through history and the various ways it impacts on our lives. Here you can read about the earliest gamblers who thought that the fall of the dice was controlled by the gods, as well as the modern geneticist and quantum theory researcher trying to integrate aspects of probability into their chosen speciality. Example included in the first addition such as the infamous Monty Hall problem, tossing coins, coincidences, horse racing, birthdays and babies remain, often with an expanded discussion, in this edition. Additional material in the second edition includes, a probabilistic explanation of why things were better when you were younger, consideration of whether you can use probability to prove the existence of God, how long you may have to wait to win the lottery, some court room dramas, predicting the future, and how evolution scores over creationism. Chance Rules lets you learn about probability without complex mathematics.

Superforecasting


Author : Philip Tetlock
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015-09-01


PDF Download Superforecasting Books For free written by Philip Tetlock and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-09-01 with categories.


'This marvelous book tells an exciting story of ordinary people beating experts in a very serious game. It is also a manual on how to think clearly about an uncertain world. Read it.' - Daniel Kahneman When it comes to making predictions about the future, the average expert is about as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee. This was the much-publicised conclusion of the largest and most comprehensive analysis of expert predictions ever undertaken, completed by Philip Tetlock in 2005 after almost twenty years' work. In the course of his research, Tetlock considered 27,450 forecasts made by hundreds of experts who make a career out of forecasting political or economic events. The results were damning. Not only was the average success rate of the experts roughly equivalent to that of someone making random guesses, but Tetlock discovered that the more 'pre-eminent' the experts were, the less accurate their predictions tended to be. In Seeing Further, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner show that our desire for meaningful predictions about the future is far from futile, however. Based on an ongoing, multi-million dollar 'forecasting tournament', the authors offer compelling evidence for ways in which we are able to improve our foresight and make more accurate predictions. Using the approach they term as the 'fox' style of thinking, Tetlock and Gardner show how a few simple training exercises can improve the average person's ability to predict the future by a staggering 20 per cent. At the end of the first year of the forecasting tournament, the 'Good Judgement' team using these exercises was beating all other teams by 30 to 60 per cent. The importance of accurate forecasting cannot be underestimated. It can spell the difference between prosperity and penury, progress and collapse, even peace and war. This is a crucial and enlightening exploration of a topic which will never cease to be relevant.

The Physics Of Wall Street


Author : James Owen Weatherall
language : en
Publisher: HMH
Release Date : 2013-01-08


PDF Download The Physics Of Wall Street Books For free written by James Owen Weatherall and has been published by HMH this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-08 with Business & Economics categories.


A look inside the world of “quants” and how science can (and can’t) predict financial markets: “Entertaining and enlightening” (The New York Times). After the economic meltdown of 2008, Warren Buffett famously warned, “beware of geeks bearing formulas.” But while many of the mathematicians and software engineers on Wall Street failed when their abstractions turned ugly in practice, a special breed of physicists has a much deeper history of revolutionizing finance. Taking us from fin-de-siècle Paris to Rat Pack–era Las Vegas, from wartime government labs to Yippie communes on the Pacific coast, James Owen Weatherall shows how physicists successfully brought their science to bear on some of the thorniest problems in economics, from options pricing to bubbles. The crisis was partly a failure of mathematical modeling. But even more, it was a failure of some very sophisticated financial institutions to think like physicists. Models—whether in science or finance—have limitations; they break down under certain conditions. And in 2008, sophisticated models fell into the hands of people who didn’t understand their purpose, and didn’t care. It was a catastrophic misuse of science. The solution, however, is not to give up on models; it’s to make them better. This book reveals the people and ideas on the cusp of a new era in finance, from a geophysicist using a model designed for earthquakes to predict a massive stock market crash to a physicist-run hedge fund earning 2,478.6% over the course of the 1990s. Weatherall shows how an obscure idea from quantum theory might soon be used to create a far more accurate Consumer Price Index. The Physics of Wall Street will change how we think about our economic future. “Fascinating history . . . Happily, the author has a gift for making complex concepts clear to lay readers.” —Booklist