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The Signal And The Noise


Author : Nate Silver
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2012-09-27


PDF Download The Signal And The Noise Books For free written by Nate Silver and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-09-27 with Political Science categories.


"One of the more momentous books of the decade." -The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.


Author : Nassim Taleb
language : iw
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009


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Summary Of Nate Silver S The Signal And The Noise By Milkyway Media


Author : Milkyway Media
language : en
Publisher: Milkyway Media
Release Date : 2018-08-31


PDF Download Summary Of Nate Silver S The Signal And The Noise By Milkyway Media Books For free written by Milkyway Media and has been published by Milkyway Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-08-31 with Study Aids categories.


The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t (2012), considers the common shortcomings statisticians face when attempting to make predictions. While bad predictions can lead to setbacks and false beliefs, accurate predictions can advance scientific knowledge, government efficiency, the quality of education, and other social projects and goals… Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.


Author : ג'ון סטיינבק
language : en
Publisher: כנרת
Release Date : 1988


PDF Download Books For free written by ג'ון סטיינבק and has been published by כנרת this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988 with California categories.




The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes


Author :
language : en
Publisher: Callisto Media Inc
Release Date : 2012-11-20


PDF Download The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes Books For free written by and has been published by Callisto Media Inc this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-11-20 with Business & Economics categories.


The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.


Author : יעל מולצ׳אדסקי
language : iw
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015


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The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes


Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012-11-01


PDF Download The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes Books For free written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-11-01 with Bayesian statistical decision theory categories.


The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.